SpaceX's $75B IPO Is Either the Greatest Trade of the Decade or 1999 All Over Again — Social Sentiment Is Screaming Both
SpaceX dominates the sentiment feed, AI CapEx math looks terrifying, and oil just technically broke down — here's your weekly debrief
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP | hold | $166.84 | — | — | — |
| MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | buy | $989.60 | — | — | — |
| MSFT MICROSOFT CORP | hold | $390.68 | — | — | — |
| GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | hold | $360.87 | — | — | — |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. | hold | $569.30 | — | — | — |
| KR KROGER CO | sell | $64.70 | — | — | — |
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | sell | $203.36 | — | — | — |
| GS GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | buy | $1064.40 | — | — | — |
| MS MORGAN STANLEY | buy | $214.49 | — | — | — |
| GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST | buy | $386.54 | — | — | — |
Let's get the obvious out of the way: $SPCX is the only thing anyone in finance wanted to talk about this week, and for good reason. The largest IPO in history raised $75 billion, closed up 19% on day one at $161/share, generated $350 billion in demand, and instantly vaulted SpaceX past $2 trillion in market cap — leapfrogging Tesla, Saudi Aramco, and Meta in one afternoon. Jim Cramer called it an A-plus. Jim Chanos called it faith-based investing at 110x revenues. Both men are technically correct, which is the most unsettling possible outcome.
Meanwhile, the macro backdrop quietly shifted. Crude oil broke below key technical levels as a US-Iran deal moved from rumor to near-reality — Fundstrat's Mark Newton flagged the breakdown as very bearish for crude — while $SMH posted its highest-ever weekly close, sitting just 3.7% from all-time highs. Semiconductors leading, oil fading, SpaceX ripping: the market is telling a very specific story right now. And over on YouTube, Andrei Jikh quietly dropped the data bomb of the week — a Financial Times CapEx analysis showing that under even the most optimistic assumptions, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle may not profit from their AI infrastructure buildout through 2030. That one deserves a lot more airtime than it's getting.
Nasdaq also changed its index inclusion rules mid-week specifically to let SpaceX qualify — meaning your 401k is about to become a forced buyer whether you voted for it or not. History doesn't repeat, but it does occasionally wear a rocket suit.