Iran Deal, SpaceX Hype, and a Fed Wildcard: The Market Cocktail Nobody Ordered
A US-Iran ceasefire MOU, a SpaceX mania wave, and Warsh's debut FOMC meeting walk into a bar — and volatility picks up the tab
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP | hold | $205.95 | — | — | — |
| ADBE ADOBE INC. | hold | $207.24 | — | — | — |
| RXT Rackspace Technology, Inc. | hold | $6.19 | — | — | — |
| AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC | buy | $510.69 | — | — | — |
| RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE | sell | $15.93 | — | — | — |
| VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC | hold | $46.74 | — | — | — |
| USO United States Oil Fund, LP | sell | $115.47 | — | — | — |
| BTC Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF | hold | $65750.00 | — | — | — |
The macro story of the week is simple: Trump signed a one-page-and-a-half MOU with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is theoretically reopening, and WTI crude cratered ~6% to around $75-76/barrel. Bloomberg's own commodity strategist is calling for $50/barrel by year-end. Sen. Elizabeth Warren went on Bloomberg to argue the US gave up a stronger hand — frozen assets, open Hormuz, heavy sanctions — for a deal light on nuclear specifics. She's not wrong that the MOU is vague. Markets, however, didn't care: the S&P popped ~2% on the headline, then gave it back as semiconductor selling resumed.
Meanwhile, $SPCX (SpaceX) is doing things that make options veterans physically uncomfortable — total options premium reportedly exceeded Tesla, Nvidia, SPY, and QQQ combined in a single session. The stock hit near-parity with Microsoft before pulling back, sitting as the world's fourth-largest public company. Jim Cramer's take: the valuation is almost entirely a Musk persona trade. Apollo's Torsten Slok has a more sobering narrative building in the background — Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting could bring a regime change, stripping forward guidance and hawking up the balance sheet conversation in ways markets haven't priced.
Snap unveiled $2,195 AR glasses ($SNAP fell 5% on the day, already -30% YTD), Adobe beat-and-raised but tanked ~7% on CFO drama, and Rackspace surged 27% on an AMD AI infrastructure deal nobody saw coming. The market right now is a series of trapdoors — as one IBD trader put it on YouTube — that open "very, very quickly." Buckle accordingly.