The SpaceX IPO Just Broke History — and the Bears Are Already Circling

Let's just say it: SpaceX (SPCX) had a day. The largest IPO in history raised $75 billion, priced at $135, opened at $150, and closed up 19% at $161 — instantly vaulting the company past Tesla, Meta, and Saudi Aramco to a ~$2 trillion market cap. The S&P 500 tagged along for the ride, gaining 37 points, with the Dow adding 353, helped by an 80-85% probability of a U.S.-Iran peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Not a bad Friday.

The bull case is genuinely wild: Starlink generating ~$11B in connectivity revenue, a claimed $28.5 trillion TAM, and xAI data centers collecting $1.25B/month from Anthropic alone. The bear case, articulated loudly by short-seller Jim Chanos, is that 110x revenues with no profit rhymes uncomfortably with 1999. Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler piled on, flagging Musk's 85% voting control and a Texas incorporation as governance red flags. Meanwhile, NASDAQ quietly rewrote its index inclusion rules specifically for SpaceX — which is either a compliment or a warning sign depending on your priors.

Elsewhere in the market, Kroger (KR) heads into earnings facing its weakest sales growth since August 2024, getting squeezed between Amazon and Walmart on delivery. Also, Roku (ROKU) surged ~20% on M&A rumors — though that's already in the rearview mirror. The macro wildcard remains new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting, where rates are expected to hold but every syllable will be dissected for signs of political independence. History suggests betting against Musk is expensive. History also suggests 110x revenues eventually finds gravity.