Reddit's New DD Obsession: SpaceX IPO Hype Is Cooling — And the Math Explains Why

Reddit's investing communities have a new obsession, and it's the SpaceX IPO — or more accurately, the slow-motion deflation of it. The valuation has already slid from $2 trillion to $1.8 trillion (Elon called the reports 'false,' which is doing a lot of heavy lifting), trading is set to begin June 11th, and the wrinkle nobody priced in: over half of SpaceX's $20B+ CapEx is now flowing into xAI. You signed up for rockets, you got a chatbot company with a rocket hobby. Upvotes on the skepticism threads are telling.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up nearly 70% in two months, and ChartGuys' 'who pumps next' framework has r/investing doing technical analysis for the first time in their lives. $SMH is leading the rotation, $AVGO just broke out to new highs ahead of earnings, and the prevailing sentiment is basically 'ride the EMA or get left behind.' The AI picks-and-shovels trade — think copper, data center suppliers, engineering firms — is getting serious traction as the smarter alternative to chasing pure-play AI names at nosebleed multiples.

Bonus chaos: a Bloomberg Odd Lots deep-dive on the $4-5 trillion commodity finance market went viral in r/geopolitics, reminding everyone that 1,500+ ships trapped near the Strait of Hormuz isn't just a foreign policy story — it's a liquidity crisis wearing a cargo ship costume.