Reddit's Doing the Math on AI CapEx — and the Numbers Are Terrifying for Big Tech

A Financial Times analysis featured in Andrei Jikh's latest YouTube video is quietly going viral in investing subreddits — and the thesis is brutal. Under the most optimistic assumptions (literally zero operational costs), here's the implied return on AI infrastructure spending through 2030: Microsoft -9.2%, Google -15.7%, Meta -28.8%, Oracle -35.6%. The only name in positive territory? Amazon at +7.2% — and that's the optimistic scenario.

Meanwhile, TheChartGuys flagged that Mag 7 and software names like IGV are showing significant technical weakness — Microsoft gave back most of its recent move, Amazon is grinding lower, and money is visibly rotating into XLF, which just hit multi-month highs. Reddit DDs are connecting these dots fast: the AI capex party may have been pre-gamed, and the hangover is arriving right on schedule.

If the best-case scenario for the AI buildout is a near-decade of negative returns, the market may finally be pricing in what the bears have been yelling into the void for two years — turns out 'spend first, profit later' is a harder sell when rates aren't zero.