Iran Threatens to Shut Hormuz, Oil Spikes, and Wall Street Finally Notices It Has a Problem
US-Iran war escalation, a three-year inflation high, and a brutal day for equities — social sentiment is somewhere between 'panic' and 'I told you so'
Ticker Ratings
Let's set the scene: WTI crude is pushing $91/barrel, the S&P 500 dropped ~1.6%, the Nasdaq shed nearly 2%, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards are threatening to slam shut the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply — if Trump follows through on his energy facility threats. Saudi Aramco's CEO just bailed on a major international energy conference. This is not a drill.
Meanwhile, May CPI printed at 4.2% year-over-year — the highest in three years — with gasoline up 40.5% and airline fares up 26.7%. Average hourly earnings grew just 3.4%, meaning real wages are getting eaten alive. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is inheriting a stagflation nightmare, and Bloomberg's coverage of the CNBC commentary makes clear that at least one former Trump economist thinks rate hikes are coming whether Wall Street likes it or not. The Fed is, as one YouTube commentator bluntly put it, completely trapped.
The one bright spot in this dumpster fire? $CBRL ripped 23% on raised guidance. Sometimes all it takes to be a hero is selling chicken and dumplings in a war economy.