Hormuz or Bust: Oil Markets Brace for Monday Mayhem as Iran Threatens to Shut the World's Most Important Waterway

Let's set the scene: Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply flows — if Trump executes his threats on Iranian energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Saudi Aramco CEO quietly pulled out of a major international energy conference this weekend. That's not a scheduling conflict. That's a man reading the room.

Oil is doing its best impression of a caffeinated squirrel right now — whipsawing on war risk headlines one minute, then pulling back on whispers of a 60-day US-Iran deal involving Hormuz reopening and sanctions relief. A Bloomberg Daybreak discussion cited conflicting Trump-Netanyahu statements on a Lebanon ceasefire as further muddying the waters. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent says the US has 'plenty' of funds for an Iran war, which is either reassuring or deeply alarming depending on your risk tolerance. The dollar is surging on haven demand, Asian shares are sliding, and UK PM Starmer just called an emergency economic meeting. Cool, cool, totally normal Monday vibes.

The real trade here is simple: energy volatility isn't going anywhere, and anyone who sold their geopolitical hedge last week is currently having a very bad Sunday.