Hormuz or Bust: Oil Markets Brace for Monday as US-Iran War Risk Goes From 'Maybe' to 'Very Yes'
Iran's Revolutionary Guards threaten full Hormuz closure, Saudi Aramco's CEO skips a major conference, and the dollar is doing what dollars do when bombs might drop
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO United States Oil Fund, LP | buy | $129.09 | — | — | — |
| XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP | buy | $145.43 | — | — | — |
| CVX CHEVRON CORP | buy | $182.25 | — | — | — |
| UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | buy | $27.66 | — | — | — |
| GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST | buy | $417.12 | — | — | — |
| AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | sell | $14.62 | — | — | — |
Let's set the scene: it's Sunday night, market indicators are showing zeroes across the board, and Reuters is publishing headlines that read like a Tom Clancy novel pitch meeting. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz if Trump follows through on energy facility strikes. About 20% of global oil supply flows through that strait. The vibes, as they say, are immaculate — if by immaculate you mean apocalyptic.
Social sentiment across YouTube and Reddit is split into two camps: the doomers watching crude futures and stockpiling canned goods, and the opportunists eyeing energy plays. Bloomberg's coverage notes the dollar is already catching safe-haven flows, Asia shares are sliding, and Treasury yields are climbing — the classic fear trade trifecta. Meanwhile, UK PM Starmer called an emergency economic meeting, and Saudi Aramco's CEO quietly noped out of a major international energy conference. That last one says more than any headline could.
The Jeremiah Babe crowd on YouTube has been sounding alarm bells — no Iran deal, credit card delinquencies at 2008 highs, and real estate agents leaving the industry in droves. Whether you're bearish or just bored, one thing is certain: Monday's open is going to be very interesting for anyone holding energy names — and absolutely brutal for anyone who forgot geopolitics was still a thing.