Hormuz Is 90% Closed and Oil Is at $100 — Here's Why It Isn't $200

Let's get into it: the Strait of Hormuz has been approximately 90-95% closed for over three months following a US strike on Iran, disrupting nearly 20% of global oil and gas supply. Oil is sitting around $100/barrel and Bloomberg is reporting it's not expected to return to pre-war levels of $70 until 2028. Iran's Revolutionary Guards are now threatening to fully close the strait if Trump follows through on energy facility threats — and Treasury Secretary Bessent just told reporters the US has "plenty of funds" for a war. Cool, cool, totally fine.

The reason we're not at $200 oil yet? A pre-existing supply glut of ~3 million barrels/day, unsanctioned Russian and Iranian oil still flowing, and two Saudi/UAE bypass pipelines quietly doing God's work. $USO bulls are watching those pipelines like they're the last lifeboats on the Titanic. Meanwhile, Australia's One Nation is surging in polls on cost-of-living fury — and Bloomberg's Zero podcast is calling this the Asia "Ukraine moment" that finally supercharges the global energy transition.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon is out here leading the SpaceX IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation — and apparently it only took 20 years of relationship-building with Elon Musk. War is terrible, but Wall Street's calendar doesn't take days off.