$2 Trillion Worth of IPOs Could Break the Market — or Save It

Fundstrat's Tom Lee is doing the math that nobody wants to do: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could collectively represent roughly $2 trillion in market cap — about 5% of the entire US stock market — and they're all potentially coming to market in the next 12-18 months. The initial float of ~$100 billion is probably fine given $7 trillion in cash sitting on the sidelines, but the real ticking clock is the ~$3 trillion in locked-up value that starts unlocking post-IPO. That's not a traffic jam — that's a parking lot that becomes a freeway at midnight.

Meanwhile, $AVGO is out here making everyone look bad ahead of its June 3rd earnings, with analysts projecting over $100 billion in sales next year and $10.7 billion in AI chip revenue. Susquehanna just bumped its price target to $490, and a fresh $10 billion buyback plus expanded deals with Google and Anthropic means the AI infrastructure trade is very much still alive.

On the macro side, Bloomberg's weekend desk is watching Iran-linked ballistic missiles hitting Kuwaiti air bases and cease-fire timelines slipping — which is exactly the kind of geopolitical background noise that makes a $2 trillion IPO queue feel even spicier. History says large IPOs are a coin flip for broader markets. Heads you get positive catalysts. Tails you get supply indigestion. Either way, buckle up — H2 2025 is not going to be boring.